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New home construction is stalling as homebuilder sentiment sours over Trump’s tariffs, economists say

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  • Tariff and immigration policy anxiety is settling in for homebuilders, and it’s starting to reveal itself in the data. Building permits, housing starts, and housing completions all fell in February compared to a year ago. Despite some monthly rebounds from a particularly weak January, builders are losing confidence—and buyers might have to pay the price. 

Homebuilders are anxious about tariffs, and it’s starting to show in construction data. Building permits, housing starts, and housing completions all fell in February compared to a year ago, according to government data released Tuesday. Any drop-off in housing development is distressing because the country is short almost four million homes. 

“Builders are exercising caution due to the economic uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration’s advancement of a trade war and mass deportations,” Joel Berner, Realtor.com senior economist, said in a statement. “With tariffs being levied against construction imports like Canadian lumber and the construction labor force being shrunk by immigration policy, builders are pulling back on delivering new homes to the market.”

Economists warned before President Donald Trump was elected his tariff and immigration policies could be inflationary, and it appears as if builders are catching on; they’re essentially taking a page out of the Federal Reserve’s approach-with-caution book. The on-again, off-again tariffs are prompting uncertainty, but the threats of reciprocal tariffs as well as those on lumber, aluminum, and steel are enough to push builders to pull back. 

For a while, the new construction market was a bright spot in an otherwise dreary housing world where existing home sales fell to their lowest level in almost three decades. Builders could do what typical sellers couldn’t: They could offer mortgage rate buydowns and build smaller homes. But “growing concerns over tariffs are starting to have an impact on new starts and permitting activity,” Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said in a statement, echoing her peers as she pointed to tariffs and overall economic uncertainty weighing on builders.

According to U.S. Census Bureau data released Tuesday, total building permits dropped 1.2% from January and 6.8% from a year earlier; total housing starts rose 11.2% from January but fell 2.9% from a year earlier; and total housing completions declined 4% from January and 6.2% from a year ago. Total starts were the only area to rebound on a monthly basis. Even so, multifamily development bore the brunt of the blow, Berner explained, which could mean higher rents ahead because fewer apartments mean increased demand and that tends to come with higher prices. Single-family construction isn’t out of the woods despite some monthly increases in starts and completions after an especially weak January. 

Even the National Association of Homebuilders appeared to write off the month-to-month rebound in starts as a product of limited existing inventory because homeowners are holding onto their homes rather than selling for fear of losing their low mortgage rate. The group said builders are grappling with elevated construction costs stemming from tariff issues and persistent labor shortages.

“Builder confidence is weighed down by the double whammy of cost challenges and policy uncertainty,” Odeta Kushi, chief economist of First American Financial Corporation, said in a statement. “Builders face persistent supply-side and affordability challenges, from higher material costs to a shortage of skilled labor. Material costs are still about 40% higher than pre-pandemic levels, making construction more expensive.” 

Tariffs could make everything more costly. After all, builders estimate levies could mean an extra $9,000 to the price tag on every home.

“If tariffs persist, builders will have no choice but to pass on the costs to consumers, who are already struggling with housing affordability,” Kushi said. (Bank of America also recently found building material manufacturers’ are hiking prices on the back of Trump’s tariffs).

Since February 2020, home prices increased 45% and rents 33%, according to Zillow: a product of the pandemic housing boom. Mortgage rates are nowhere near their pandemic rock bottom either. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.95%, according to the latest weekly average. Many people can’t afford a tariff-related increase to either home prices or rents at this point. 

The underlying trend is homebuilding is slowing, Matthew Walsh, Moody’s housing economist, said in a statement.

“Homebuilder sentiment is souring amid mounting uncertainty around trade and immigration policy, is clouding the outlook for new construction,” he said.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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Workplace expert Adam Grant says everyone should be considered for a promotion unless they explicitly ‘opt out’

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Good morning!

Ensuring that both men and women across large companies are promoted equally isn’t easy. That’s why Adam Grant, author, and chief worklife expert at job review platform Glassdoor, says all employers should use an “opt out,” model. 

That means HR leaders should assume that everyone at their company is yearning for a promotion, unless they specifically tell management that they want to “opt out” of such opportunities, Grant told my colleague Sara Braun in a recent interview. This helps ensure that everyone is considered for promotional opportunities, and not just those who speak up or are more aggressive about pursuing advancement.

“The reality is that in an organization, the employer has the power, and a lot of people—both men and women—are fearful that if they if they cross a line or they ask for something that’s perceived as entitled or inappropriate, that it could jeopardize their relationships, their reputation, and maybe their employment,” Grant said. 

His advice follows grim new data from Glassdoor showing how much more intimidated women are when it comes to asking for a higher salary. Only 36% of women feel comfortable asking for a raise, compared to 44% of men. A separate McKinsey study found that when it comes to first-time promotions, men lead by a significant margin; for every 100 men, only 81 women advance within their organizations.

There is research to back up the wisdom of employers who create an “opt in” system. The framework can remove some of the bias inherent in promotion systems, which tend favor those who are overconfident or like to compete—a disparity can then lead to more gender imbalances in leadership positions, according to a 2021 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). It found that changing to a system in which applicants are automatically enrolled can “reduce the gender gap in competition and support the ascension of women to leadership positions.”

Even if a company doesn’t totally revamp its promotion framework, Grant says leaders need to do a better job of regularly alerting their employees as to when leadership positions become available. 

“The same way that your cell phone provider tells you that you’re eligible for an upgrade, we ought to have leaders and managers reaching out to women especially, and saying, ‘Hey, you might be eligible for a raise.’”

Brit Morse
brit.morse@fortune.com

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is buying a slice of Covent Garden for $739 million amid retail boom for the former fruit and veg market

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The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund—Norway’s Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM)—is buying a 25% stake in London’s buzzy Covent Garden worth £570 million ($739 million). 

NBIM, which has nearly $2 trillion worth of assets under management and holds 1.5% of all listed companies in the world, is partnering with Shaftesbury Capital, the area’s landlord, for the deal.   

The Covent Garden estate is now worth £2.7 billion ($3.5 billion), Shaftesbury said in a press release Thursday. Retail and food and beverage establishments use most of the land, while office and residential buildings occupy a quarter.  

The area, which includes Seven Dials and Neal’s Yard, is already a popular tourist destination and boasts stores of most major brands, from Tissot and Ladurée to Apple and Chanel. 

NBIM’s investment comes amid a slew of new retail establishments opening up in Covent Garden, including brands like perfumery Diptyque, activewear brand Alo Yoga, and cosmetics store Charlotte Tilbury.

Covent Garden is one of London’s prominent cultural hubs. When the city was decimated by fire in 1666, the area rose to the occasion, becoming London’s largest market selling fruit and vegetables. 

Today, it’s home to the city’s West End and Opera shows and flaunts a Piazza with scores of food and retail joints sprinkled around.

The area suffered from the loss of foot traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic, losing about a quarter of its value at the time from £2.5 billion to £1.8 billion. As activity began picking up, Shaftesbury continued to bolster its portfolio in Covent Garden’s prime property market. Luxury property demand in Covent Garden reached “record-breaking” levels last year, real estate firm UK Sotheby’s International Realty found. 

“This investment underscores our belief in the strength of London with the portfolio complementing our other high quality West End investments,” said Jayesh Patel, head of UK real estate at NBIM. “Covent Garden is one of the world’s most recognized retail, leisure and cultural destinations.”

The vibrant shopping district isn’t the only one that has recently grabbed NBIM’s attention. In January, the Norwegian fund bought a quarter of the Grosvenor property portfolio in London’s upscale Mayfair neighborhood. The deal was worth £307.5 million and includes a mix of office and retail buildings.

NBIM also owns a portion of Regent Street through a partnership with the Crown Estate.    

Companies are trying to take advantage of low prices in prime real estate, including high-end retail, following the whiplash from high interest rates.   

NBIM, led by CEO Nicolai Tangen, has become an avid investor over the years. Most of its funds are invested in equity, including roughly $173 billion in Magnificent Seven stocks. Only 7% of its investments are in real estate.  

Following the deal’s announcement, Shaftesbury’s shares were up 7.5% at 11.30 a.m. London time.  
Representatives at NBIM and Shaftesbury didn’t immediately return Fortune’s requests for comment.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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Tesla longtime investor says it’s time Elon Musk found a ‘suitable CEO’ for the job

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  • Investor Ross Gerber, a longtime Tesla supporter, is now calling for Elon Musk to step down as CEO, arguing that Musk’s focus on his White House role has led to Tesla’s neglect amid a sharp decline in its stock price. As Tesla faces political backlash and concerns over Musk’s divided attention, Gerber insists the company needs a dedicated leader to regain stability.

For more than a decade Ross Gerber’s wealth management business has backed EV maker Tesla under the leadership of Elon Musk.

But Gerber’s support has shifted in the recent years—even more so since Musk landed a White House job—and he is now calling on the world’s richest man to step aside.

While Gerber Kawasaki Wealth Management isn’t one of Tesla’s largest stakeholders (per an SEC fling it owns 262,352 shares as of February 2025, a small portion of the approximately 3.2 billion shares total) it does represent a significant stake in the investment company’s portfolio.

Valued at around $106 million, Gerber Kawasaki Wealth Management started selling Tesla shares in earnest in 2023.

Gerber has become something of a mouthpiece for Tesla shareholders who disagree with Musk’s leadership, having pushed for an activist board seat a couple of years ago.

But Gerber has, until now, been more of a critical friend to Musk than an outright opponent. Yet this week as Tesla’s stock price continues to fall, Gerber’s stance has shifted.

“There’s no question [Musk] has been committed to his job at the government, that’s where he’s spending his time. He is not running Tesla,” Gerber told Sky News. “I think Tesla needs a new CEO and I decided today I was going to start saying it… It’s time for somebody to run Tesla. The business has been neglected for too long.

“There are too many important things Tesla is doing, so either Elon should come back to Tesla and be the CEO of Tesla and give up his other jobs or he should focus on the government and keep doing what he is doing but find a suitable CEO of Tesla.”

At the time of writing Tesla’s share price is down 5% over the past five days, and down more than 50% from its peak in December.

“I think it’s time,” Gerber concluded.

Tesla did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

Tesla’s troubles

The more embroiled Musk becomes in White House politics, the worse things seem to get for Tesla.

When Musk was merely an ally and political donor to the would-be President, Tesla’s shares surged to record highs. This was believed to be on account of President Trump shifting his stance on EVs, signaling analysts could an expect a friendly reception for Tesla if Trump won the Oval Office.

But Musk and Trump’s paths have continued to more closely intertwine, with those who oppose the President’s politics taking their fury out on Musk’s private companies.

This has included Molotov cocktails being thrown at Tesla vehicles in Las Vegas, gunshots fired at one of the carmaker’s showrooms in Portland, Ore., and company charging points set on fire in Boston.

Tesla customers are also returning their vehicles or canceling their leases in droves, with others sporting bumper stickers making it known they made the purchase before Musk began working with Trump and on the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Not only is Musk causing problems from a political standpoint—a problem he is well aware of—critics are also questioning whether his focus and time is adequately allocated to the business worth $758 billion.

“We all make choices with our time and Elon doesn’t get more than 24 hours a day just because he’s Elon,” Gerber added. “We make choices, all of us do: Do we spend time with our family, do we go golfing, do we work?

“Elon chooses to work all the time but you can only work so many hours a day—it’s 24, and he sleeps.”

Even when Musk purchased Twitter in 2022, questions were asked about how thinly he was spread. Since then cause for concern has only increased: Musk also heads up Neuralink, xAI, and has overseen more frequent launches with SpaceX.

Previously Musk has addressed concern about his capacity, and the impact his work has on his wellbeing. Back in 2023—pre-White House—Musk admitted spinning so many plates was taking a toll. Responding to an X post that asked Musk to “keep safe and take care,” the <a href=”http://

I’m worried about me too 🙁

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 5, 2023
“>tech titan responded: “I’m worried about me too :(”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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