Home prices in Portugal, one of Europe’s hottest property markets, are expected to continue rising in 2025 on the back of increasing foreign demand and lackluster supply, according to DBRS Morningstar.

“Factors such as supply-demand dynamics, lack of new construction, and increased foreign interest shall persist in the short to medium term and keep an upward pressure on prices,” said a report by senior credit analyst Andre Soutinho and other DBRS researchers.

Portugal became a hot spot for foreign buyers more than a decade ago after the nation introduced “golden visas” which tied residency permits to investment in the country, including real estate purchases. The real estate option was removed in 2023 as a means of accessing golden visas, but that hasn’t deterred overseas buyers. 

Wealthy Americans have flocked to Portugal in recent years in search of sunny climes and a lower cost of living. These buyers accounted for about a third of all sales of Knight Frank’s Portuguese unit since the start of the year, according to Chief Operating Officer Jorge Costa. 

While the red-hot market has been a boon for existing homeowners, it’s also created a challenge for locals and first-time home buyers in Portugal, said DBRS. Prime residential property prices in Lisbon, the Portuguese capital, are now higher than in Madrid, Berlin and Amsterdam, according to a Savills Plc. report from February that tracks prime residential property in international cities.

To address the lack of affordable housing, Portugal’s outgoing government vowed to add 59,000 new homes. It also recently announced that the state would guarantee home purchase loans for borrowers between 18 and 35.

Developers in Portugal have said that it will take time to close the gap between supply and demand and that rising construction costs will make it hard to bring down property prices.

“Governmental measures to address these imbalances in our view are relatively limited as they require time to have an effect,” the credit rating agency DBRS said.

Social housing accounts for just 2% of the total housing stock in Portugal — among the lowest levels in the EU.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

A growing share of US consumers say they’re not seeking loans because they expect to be refused amid tight credit conditions, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 

The share of discouraged borrowers, defined as respondents who said they needed credit but didn’t apply because they didn’t expect to get approved, climbed to 8.5% in the New York Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. That’s the highest level since the study began in 2013.

The perceived likelihood of being rejected increased across different forms of credit, from cards to secured loans to buy homes and cars. Roughly one-third of auto loan applicants expected to get turned down, the highest share since the start of the series, while nearly half of all respondents in the February survey said it’ll be harder to get credit in a year’s time.

The data adds to a picture of increasingly fragile household finances for many Americans, as a cooling job market slows wage gains while high borrowing costs are making bills harder to pay. Delinquency rates remain low by pre-pandemic standards but they’ve been edging higher in most categories, and lenders are turning cautious.  

More than four in 10 US homeowners who sought to refinance their mortgages had their applications rejected, according to the February survey, quadruple the share in October 2023. 

With mortgage lending rates still much higher than a couple of years ago, many people seeking a refi are likely trying to tap equity accumulated during the recent housing boom in order to meet other debt costs or expenses, rather than to reduce their monthly payments. Inability to do so could put some under pressure to sell their homes. 

Meanwhile, the share of consumers in the New York Fed survey who said they could come up with $2,000 in the event of an unexpected need declined to 63%, a new series low.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

LOS ANGELES (AP) — As a wounded Democratic Party struggles to regroup, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is holding mostly chummy conversations with prominent conservatives on a new podcast he’s touting as a way for the party to grapple with the MAGA movement’s popularity.

In doing so, he appears intent on showing he is more than a progressive warrior. But he has stunned some members of his own party by agreeing with his guests on issues such as restricting transgender women and girls in sports. Newsom called dismantling police departments “lunacy” and remained silent when Steve Bannon, an architect of President Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign, falsely said Trump won the 2020 presidential election.

The programs provide a fresh lens on a liberal governor and potential 2028 presidential candidate who not long ago was enlisted as a chief surrogate for President Joe Biden’s campaign. Ahead of the 2022 midterms, he chastised national Democrats for being too passive in defending abortion rights and same-sex marriage, an issue he championed two decades ago as mayor of San Francisco.

Newsom said his choice of podcast guests reflects his interest in knowing more about how Republicans organized in the last election, when Trump swept every battleground state and Republicans locked up majorities in the House and Senate.

“I think we all agreed after the last election that it’s important for Democrats to explore new and unique ways of talking to people,” he added in an email to supporters.

Newsom’s party criticizes his guests

After spotlighting Bannon, conservative radio personality Michael Savage and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, Newsom will quickly diversify his lineup: His next guest is Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, last year’s Democratic vice presidential nominee. But some Democrats say the governor, who is widely viewed as having presidential ambitions, is selling out Democratic values in favor of his own political aspirations.

Aimee Allison, the founder and president of She the People, a national organizing hub for electing women of color, said Newsom is betraying California and “showing his weakness and naked ambition.” Allison was among Democrats who helped Newsom defeat a 2021 recall attempt.

“We need a governor that will defend California’s values, support vulnerable children, LGBTQ+ people, Black people, women, and everyone else who’s in the line (of) fire of the Trump administration. Instead he is making the worst moves possible in a time of rising fascism. He’s trying to remake himself to be acceptable to MAGA,” Allison wrote in an email, referring to supporters of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement.

California Assembly member Chris Ward and state Sen. Carolina Menjivar, who lead the state’s LGBTQ+ legislative caucus, said they were “profoundly sickened” by Newsom’s statement on transgender athletes. And Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, another potential 2028 candidate, said of Bannon, “I don’t think we should give him oxygen on any platform — ever, anywhere.”

Finding a new audience

Podcasts have become an increasingly important venue in politics, and as Newsom considers a national campaign he has been praised by some for venturing into unfamiliar territory.

Democratic consultant Bill Burton, who was national press secretary for former President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, credited Newsom with trying to reach voters who might not engage with traditional media.

“I think there are going to be a lot of people this alienates in the short term,” Burton said. But, he added, Democrats “have to take a lot of big swings.”

The governor — who called Trump a threat to American democracy throughout last year’s campaign — has been trying to navigate a tenuous relationship with the White House as the state recovers from the devastating Los Angeles wildfires in January. He’s requested $40 billion in federal aid.

Newsom, while progressive, has never been locked into one ideological position: He’s broken at times with more liberal factions in the Legislature. His shift this time may be to head off the kind of criticism Republicans have aimed at former Vice President Kamala Harris, also of California, or edge toward positions more closely in line with public opinion. According to AP VoteCast, 55% of voters nationwide in the 2024 election said support for transgender rights in government and society has gone too far.

During the podcast episodes released so far, Newsom has been mostly affable and agreeable, though he’s challenged his guests at times. This is not the tart-tongued Newsom who appeared in a 2023 televised debate with Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whom he described as weak and pathetic, or who called the state legislature into special session last year to attempt to safeguard the state’s progressive policies under a Trump administration.

In an age of rigid partisanship, talking with the other side is “so rarely a part of public discourse it seems like either bravery or lunacy,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego. “While there are clear risks, he is trying to align his national reputation … in a slightly unpredictable middle.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com