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Here’s when AI will launch a decade-long cycle of economic growth and productivity gains

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  • A new analysis from Goldman Sachs found that AI hasn’t yet had any discernable impact on major labor market indicators such as the unemployment rate, layoffs, or productivity measures. Goldman expects the labor market to be one of the first indicators of AI’s effect on the economy because unemployment data is regularly tracked, and the technology’s ability to automate tasks should increase productivity. 

Anyone waiting with bated breath for the rise of AI to roil the labor market will have to sit tight a little longer. 

Despite its rapid proliferation over the last couple years, AI has had no discernible effects on major labor market metrics, according to Goldman Sachs. 

“Aggregate labor market impacts are still negligible,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists Joseph Briggs and Sarah Dong. “Although AI exposure is highly correlated with adoption, there is no economically or statistically significant correlation between AI exposure and job growth, unemployment, job finding rates, layoff rates, weekly hours, or average hourly earnings.”

At least not yet.

Companies across the U.S. have yet to fully incorporate AI into their operations, Briggs told Fortune

“I expect that will change over the next several years,” he said. “We’re just still a little bit in the early days of the AI transition.”

Most firms took a gradual approach to integrating AI because the technology was so new and expensive that it required extensive overhauls to existing processes. AI also posed entirely new concerns over data privacy and security that companies had to contend with before rolling it out across their organizations. Some companies may also be playing a waiting game to figure out which AI tools will end up being the best, according to Briggs. 

“The technology is a little bit early, and so you don’t want to be locked into what, in the long run, is an inferior platform,” he added. 

Goldman expects AI will eventually boost the economy overall starting in 2027 with increases to labor productivity and GDP. That uplift will continue through to the late-2030s, according to Briggs and Dong’s note.

Previous Goldman estimates forecasted the full adoption of AI could lead to a 15% increase in U.S. labor productivity and a 7% increase in global GDP. 

“We have a still fairly positive outlook and bullish outlook on the longer-run impacts of AI, and we expect that it will unlock a lot of economic value,” Briggs said. 

Any overarching changes to the economy stemming from AI would have first shown up in the labor market because employment data is regularly tracked and the technology’s ability to automate tasks would, in theory, boost productivity, Briggs and Dong wrote. But since there haven’t been any major changes to ongoing trends in the unemployment rate and productivity, Goldman reasons, AI’s effects haven’t yet kicked in. 

Most labor market indicators have remained somewhat steady over the last year or so. The unemployment has hovered around 4% since December 2023, never dipping below 3.8% or rising above 4.2% over that time. The latest labor productivity measure for the fourth quarter of 2024 was 2% growth, which was a slight slowdown from the 2.5% in the third quarter. 

That’s not to say there haven’t been some changes to the overall labor market. Certain professions, like computer programming, customer service and professional services, that are highly susceptible to generative AI have started seeing some minor changes to hiring practices. 

Specifically, those industries where AI is more heavily adopted have seen slight declines in labor demand, with fewer job postings, according to Goldman’s analysis of data from the jobs website Indeed.com

“Labor demand trends over this period show a common decline across nearly all service subsectors that is correlated with exposure to AI automation, suggesting that the onset of generative AI tools may have led some companies to reevaluate hiring plans,” Briggs and Dong wrote in their note. 

Briggs said the next metric his team at Goldman will be watching is “actual job growth” across the economy to see if hiring slowdowns in certain industries are offset by new jobs. 

Big changes to the labor market are expected in the coming years. Goldman’s own 2023 forecast that 300 million jobs in the U.S. and Europe were susceptible to some level of change due to AI captured the scale of the potential impact.

However, Brigg’s report said that it will be at least two years until those changes really manifest themselves. The shakeup to the labor market will ultimately come down to how quickly AI is adopted across broad swaths of the economy. That will only start to happen once costs come down, for both AI companies and their eventual customers, and developers continue building out more applications.  

The AI industry has already started to make strides toward cheaper solutions. The release of the Chinese company DeepSeek’s latest chatbot sent shockwaves throughout the industry when it was reported to have outperformed some of OpenAI’s best models for a fraction of the development costs. Major U.S. developers have also taken strides to find new, cheaper sources of energy in a bid to lower their own costs. 

There has been some progress in business-to-business applications for specific industries like financial services and design. However, the market for these tools has yet to translate to an overhaul of the traditional software market or, as Goldman points out, lead to a substantial, measurable increase in worker productivity outside of a few examples. Though that will change as companies hire more AI talent and cobble the money to invest in new tech; both of which many still lack. 

“There’s just a lot of companies that don’t have the expertise or the internal capital to figure out how to develop applications and restructure workflows so that they can incorporate AI and reap the benefits to productivity that it promises,” Briggs said. 

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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U.S. crypto czar’s $200 million portfolio held Bitcoin, Coinbase, and Robinhood

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David Sacks and his investment firm Craft Ventures have divested more than $200 million in crypto holdings since President Donald Trump named Sacks as the White House’s AI and crypto czar, according to a Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, according to the memo. Sacks also held stock in the online brokerage Robinhood and the crypto exchange Coinbase. And he was a limited partner in the marquee crypto venture capital funds Multicoin Capital and Blockchain Capital, along with 90 other VCs.

While Sacks has divested most of his crypto holdings, he and Craft Ventures still hold equity in a suite of companies. His shares of the crypto custody firm BitGo and the Bitcoin protocol developer Lightning Labs are worth about 2.5% and 1.1% of his total assets, respectively, according to the memo. The government, however, has agreed to waive any conflicts of interest regarding Sacks and Craft Ventures’ ongoing stakes in crypto companies.

“I sold all my cryptocurrency (including BTC, ETH, and SOL) prior to the start of the administration,” Sacks said in a post on X earlier in March. 

He and his firm Craft Ventures did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Dated March 5, the memo on Sacks’ interests in the crypto industry follows social media rumblings that the AI and crypto czar risked mixing his own business with the government’s crypto dealings. After Trump posted in early March that certain cryptocurrencies, including Solana, would be included in a national crypto reserve, critics said that Sacks was boosting his own portfolio.

And more naysayers came out against Sacks once Trump officially authorized the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and a digital assets stockpile later that week. “This is a direct transfer of wealth from the U.S. treasury to David Sacks and other crypto barons,” said Ryan Grim, who runs a popular account on X and a politics newsletter. 

Sacks countered that he had divested much of his cryptocurrency holdings, and crypto executives came to his defense. “He is doing tremendous work and will not be sharing in any of the economic upside to avoid even the slightest appearance of a conflict,” Cameron Winklevoss, cofounder of the crypto exchange Gemini, posted on X.

Trump named Sacks as his AI and crypto czar in December. The then incoming president said Sacks, who is a former executive at PayPal, would guide policy on the regulation of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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Dr. Oz says probiotic supplements have wide-ranging health benefits. Here’s what science says

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Our bodies—and guts, specifically—depend on a balance of bacteria to “maintain healthy blood sugar and cholesterol levels,” but “you gotta feed the bacteria.” So said Dr. Mehmet Oz—heart surgeon turned daytime TV host, ardent RFK Jr. supporter, believer in disproven COVID treatment hydroxychloroquine, and now possible head of Medicaid and Medicare for the Trump administration—who began his Senate confirmation process on Friday

To aid in that gut-balancing process, Oz has pushed the benefits of both prebiotics and probiotics, including in his role as global advisor for the iHerb brand of supplements. 

Both have come under scrutiny recently, including through this week’s Washington Post opinion piece by Harvard medical school instructor and physician Trisha Pasricha, who called probiotics “a waste of money,” instead recommending a high-fiber diet

So which doctor is right? Here’s what science tells us. 

What are probiotics?

The human gastrointestinal tract is colonized by a range of microorganisms, including bacteria, archaea, viruses, fungi, and protozoa, explains the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Office of Dietary Supplements. And the activity and composition of those microorganisms (often known as the gut microbiome) can affect human health and disease.

Probiotics, according to the International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics, are “live microorganisms that, when administered in adequate amounts,” may benefit that gut microbiome composition. 

While they are naturally present in fermented foods—including the homemade turmeric sauerkraut Dr. Oz mentions in his Instagram post (above) about probiotics—they can also be added to food products, and are available as dietary supplements. 

“However,” notes the NIH, “not all foods and dietary supplements labeled as probiotics on the market have proven health benefits.”

That’s where a range of varied opinions come into play.

Who says what about probiotic supplements?

As Pasricha points out, of the over 1,000 clinical trials of probiotic supplements, there have been too many different strains tested and results found to reliably say they can be universally helpful. 

A 2024 review of existing evidence, published in the Advances in Nutrition journal, concluded that, on one hand, “there is sufficient evidence of efficacy and safety for clinicians and consumers to consider using specific probiotics for some indications—such as the use of probiotics to support gut function during antibiotic use or to reduce the risk of respiratory tract infections—for certain people.”

However, those researchers concluded, “we did not find a sufficiently high level of evidence to support unconditional, population-wide recommendations for other preventive endpoints we reviewed for healthy people. Although evidence for some indications is suggestive of the preventive benefits of probiotics, additional research is needed.”

When looking at the body of scientific evidence regarding effect of probiotics on seven different health issues, the NIH reports the following:

Atopic dermatitis

Numerous studies have looked at the effect of probiotics on this most common form of eczema. Overall, the evidence suggests that the use of probiotics might reduce the risk of developing atopic dermatitis, but also might provide only limited relief. The effects also depend on the strain used, the timing of administration, and the patient’s age.

Pediatric acute diarrhea

While one large review found that single- and multi-strain probiotics significantly shortened the duration of symptoms, another found it was no better than a placebo. 

Antibiotic-associated diarrhea

Overall, the available evidence suggests that starting probiotic treatment with strains LGG (Lactobacillus) or Saccharomyces boulardii within 2 days of the first antibiotic dose helps reduce the risk of diarrhea in patients between 18 and 64, but not in elderly adults.

Inflammatory bowel disease

IBD is a chronic inflammatory disease that includes ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease, for which no cure exists. In the many reviews that have looked at the effects of probiotics, researchers reached similar conclusions—that certain probiotics might have modestly beneficial effects on ulcerative colitis but not on Crohn’s disease.

Irritable bowel syndrome

IBS is a common functional disorder of the gastrointestinal tract that’s been linked to both stress and gut microbiomes. Overall, the available evidence shows that probiotics might reduce some symptoms, but stresses that additional clinical trials are needed to confirm the specifics of strain, dose, and duration of treatment.

High cholesterol

Researchers have studied the use of probiotics to improve lipid profiles. And while, overall, research suggests that using multiple probiotic strains might reduce total and LDL (bad) cholesterol levels, more research is needed.

Obesity

Again: More research is needed. The results, the NIH concludes, “indicate that the effects of probiotics on body weight and obesity might depend on several factors, including the probiotic strain, dose, and duration as well as certain characteristics of the user, including age, sex, and baseline body weight.” 

Bottom line: The jury is still out. Whether you opt to try the supplements or not (as they are generally believed to be harmless, though long-term safety studies are still needed), make sure to eat plenty of fiber as well as fermented foods. That includes yogurt, kefir, fermented cottage cheese, kimchi and other fermented vegetables (as endorsed by Oz), and kombucha tea, which were shown by Stanford University researchers to increase microbial diversity and lower inflammation.

More on supplements:

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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California regulator may allow State Farm to hike home insurance premiums by 22% for a million customers after devastating wildfires

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California’s top insurance regulator on Friday said he would approve an emergency request by State Farm to raise premiums 22% on home insurance for about a million customers if the insurance giant could justify the hike at a public hearing.

State Farm, the state’s largest insurer with roughly 1 million home insurance policies in California, said the emergency rate would help the company rebuild its capital following the Los Angeles wildfires that destroyed more than 16,000 buildings, mostly homes. The company is trying to prevent a “dire” financial situation that executives said could push homeowners into the state’s last-resort insurance option.

California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara said that other California insurers won’t be able to absorb State Farm’s customers if the insurance giant stops doing business in California, but that he wanted more data on how the company manages its finances and calculates risks. He asked the company to present its argument publicly on April 8 to a judge, who will then give a proposed decision. Lara will then make a final decision.

“State Farm claims it is committed to its California customers and aims to restore financial stability. I expect both State Farm and its parent company to meet their responsibilities and not shift the burden entirely onto their customers,” Lara said in a statement. “The facts will be revealed in an open, transparent hearing.”

Lara also called on the company to request a $500 million capital infusion from its parent company to help stabilize its finances in a private meeting this week, according to transcript of the meeting.

At the same meeting, State Farm said it would halt cancelling and not renewing policies for “at least one year” if it gets the rate increase approval. The company last year announced it discontinued coverage for 72,000 houses and apartments in California after saying it would not issue new home policies in the state in 2023.

Consumer Watchdog, a consumer advocacy group that opposed State Farm’s request, said the 22% increase could equate to an additional $600 annually for homeowners. The group previously said it would challenge the approval if Lara goes through with it.

State Farm and Consumer Watchdog didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

The emergency rates include a 22% rate increase for homeowners, 38% for rental owners and 15% for tenants. They will go into effect in June if Lara ultimately approves it. The decision comes as California is undergoing a yearslong effort to entice insurers to continue doing business in the state as wildfires increasingly destroy entire neighborhoods. In 2023, several major companies, including State Farmstopped issuing residential policies due to high fire risk. Lara last year unveiled a slate of regulations all aiming at giving insurers more latitude to raise premiums in exchange for more policies in high-risk areas. Those rules kick in this year.

State Farm executives told state officials the company was already struggling before the LA fires. The company received a financial rating downgrade last year and has seen a decline of $5 billion in its surplus account over the last decade. Last year, the company asked the state for a 30% rate increase, which state officials are still considering.

The LA fires, which are now estimated to be the costliest natural disasters in the U.S. history, have made things worse, State Farm executives said. The company last month paid out roughly $1.75 billion to 9,500 claims and estimated the total loss to reach more than $7 billion. Its surplus also dropped from $1.04 billion at the end of 2024 to $400 million after the fires, according to State Farm. The company is using its surplus and reinsurance to settle the claims.

State Farm said it plans to refund the emergency rates if California later approves lower rates through the company’s request last year. The insurer last received state approval for a 20% rate increase in December 2023.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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