• President Donald Trump’s “America first” stance is helping to discourage international travel into the U.S., according to a recent forecast. Research firm Tourism Economics slashed its outlook and now sees a 5.1% decline in visits, flipping from an earlier view for an 8.8% increase. Spending by foreign tourists is expected to tumble 11%, representing a loss of $18 billion this year.

The outlook for international travel to the U.S. has drastically changed and is now seen declining this year instead of rising.

According to a Feb. 27 report from research firm Tourism Economics, visits are expected to fall 5.1%, down from an earlier view for an 8.8% increase. Spending by foreign tourists is expected to tumble 11%, representing a loss of $18 billion this year.

That’s as President Trump’s tariffs and friendlier approach to Russia have created a global backlash, while an expanded trade-war scenario is seen slowing economic growth across U.S. trade partners and weighing on their currencies.

“In key origin markets, a situation with polarizing Trump Administration policies and rhetoric, accompanied by economic losses to nationally important industries, small businesses and households, will discourage travel to the US,” the report said. “Some organizations will feel pressure to avoid hosting events in the US, or sending employees to the US, cutting into business travel.”

In emailed comments to Fortune, Tourism Economics President Adam Sacks said in the two weeks since the report came out, the situation has deteriorated further and the forecast for a 5.1% decline is likely to get worse.

Visitors from Canada, which has been hit by Trump’s tariffs and demands for it to become the 51st U.S. state, have been canceling travel plans. In fact, the number of Canadian car trips coming back from the U.S. were down 24% in February compared to a year ago, and overall travel from Canada is seen falling 15% this year.

Meanwhile, Trump’s immigration crackdown may also raise concerns among potential travelers, particularly from Mexico, the report added.

Travel from Western Europe, which accounts for over a third of foreign tourism to the U.S., is susceptible to declines due to tariffs and “the administration’s perceived recent alignment with Russia in the war in Ukraine as sentiment towards the US is damaged,” Tourism Economics warned.

Separate data shows the overall number of foreign visitors to the U.S. fell 2.4% last month from a year ago. Travel sank 9% from Africa, 6% from Central America, and 7% from Asia, with China down 11%, according to a Washington Post analysis of government statistics.

Airlines have also sounded the alarm recently on lessened travel demand from consumers and businesses as tariffs and mass federal layoffs create economic uncertainty.

Not only are tariffs slamming foreign tourism, they are widely expected to slow U.S. economic growth, with Wall Street pricing in growing odds of a recession.

And fewer overseas visitors will make that worse because all their spending in the U.S. is treated in government statistics like an export, meaning the trade deficit is poised to widen. A deeper imbalance was a major factor in the Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker suddenly shifting into negative territory for the first quarter.

To be sure, similar declines in foreign visitors were seen during Trump’s first term, especially from Mexico, China, and the Middle East, according to Tourism Economics. But his trade war was more limited back then. Now, his tariffs are more aggressive and expansive, with no sign he plans to back down.

That comes as the U.S. will feature prominently in major upcoming tourism events. The U.S. will co-host the World Cup next year, and Los Angeles will host the Summer Olympics in 2028.

Sacks told Fortune the World Cup is less likely to be affected while the Olympics may be more at risk comparatively.

“The issue for general holiday travelers is that they have a choice of when and where to travel,” he added. “This ultimate discretion means that antipathy towards a country’s leadership can have appreciable effects.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

• Bill Gates revealed that Satya Nadella was nearly passed over for the Microsoft CEO role, despite strong support from Gates and Steve Ballmer, but has since led the company to record success. Reflecting on leadership, Gates praised Nadella’s empathetic approach, contrasting it with Microsoft’s early hard-driving culture, and emphasized the importance of humor and adaptability in navigating challenges.

While Microsoft might be synonymous with the leadership of Bill Gates, it is Satya Nadella who has guided the business to a record share price and positioned the business as a key competitor in the AI and cloud computing markets.

Yet Gates, the man who founded the business now worth $2.9 trillion, said Nadella was nearly passed over for the top role. This was despite the fact that the two previous CEOs of the tech giant—Gates himself and his successor, Steve Ballmer—backed Nadella for the job.

Now focused on his philanthropic work, Gates said in an interview this week that it was emotional to hand over the CEO title of the business: “I’ll tear up on this, ’cause it meant a lot to me. I’ve had two successors, and boy, do I feel lucky because as I went off to do the foundation work, the one thing that plagued me was: Was I going to see the company fade in terms of its excellence?

“Would I be haunted by: Should I go back, should I not go back?”

Gates stepped down as CEO of Microsoft in 2000 and was replaced by Steve Ballmer, who had been recruited by Gates in 1980 to be the company’s first business manager.

In 2013 Ballmer retired from the business, with speculation rife about who would take over the leadership of one of the world’s largest businesses.

Speaking to Brad Smith, Microsoft’s vice chair and president, Gates said: “The fact that Steve took us [Microsoft] to new heights and the fact that through a process that almost made the wrong decision—although you and Steve and I never wavered from knowing Satya would be good, and he’s been even better at navigating what even today remains one of the most complex CEO jobs in the world—makes me feel so good that I get to just come in and play a very bit role of doing product reviews, learning about AI, getting some help from Microsoft on the work that I’m doing.

“It’s allowed me to throw everything in and to have the incredible resources that my Microsoft ownership created.”

Gates has long lauded Nadella’s friendship and leadership, telling the Wall Street Journal previously that in some respects his successor is a better leader.

In 2017 Gates told the Journal: “I’ve come to value empathy more over the course of my career. Early on we were speed nuts, staying all night [at the office, thinking], ‘Oh, you’re five percent slower as a programmer? You don’t belong here.’ It was very hard-core.

“I think as this industry has matured, so has what’s expected of a CEO. Satya has a natural ability to work well with lots of people, to tell people they’re wrong in a nice way and to let feedback come through to him more than I did.”

Fortune reached out to Microsoft for comment but has had no response.

Leading with humor

Smith and Gates also reflected on their work together in the early 2000s, when the C-suite at Microsoft was pulled in front of an antitrust trial alleging web browser dominance.

While Gates admitted his sense of humor was perhaps not best suited for a deposition, he added it has been an important aspect of his leadership.

“I’m not trying to get anyone to feel sorry for me, my life is not one anybody [should] feel sorry for,” Gates reflected. “But I think there are some lessons out of how we went through what felt to me like it could have killed the company altogether…and so through that intensity, you’ve gotta have a sense of humor.

“There was that time when I was testifying and during the break the clerk comes up to me and says ‘Mr. Gates, I know people who have your scholarship, and what are you doing in D.C.?’ And all my complex testimony that day, the press covered that guy coming up to me and it made me seem at least a tiny bit more human than my image at the time was.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

US tech group Oracle on Monday said it plans to invest $5 billion in the UK over the next five years to meet “rapidly growing demand” for cloud services helping drive artificial intelligence.

“The investment will expand Oracle Cloud Infrastructure’s footprint in the UK and help the UK government deliver on its vision for AI innovation and adoption,” Oracle added in a statement.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has pledged to ease red tape to attract billions of pounds of investment to help make Britain an “AI superpower”.

Oracle’s founder, Larry Ellison, is a close ally of US President Donald Trump, with whom Starmer is hoping to strike a post-Brexit trade deal.

“By working with global tech leaders like Oracle, we’re cementing the UK’s position at the forefront of the AI revolution,” Britain’s technology minister Peter Kyle said in the joint statement.

Britain currently has the third-largest AI industry after the United States and China.

Starmer’s administration has estimated that AI could be worth £47 billion ($61 billion) to the UK each year over a decade.

The government had already announced that three tech companies — Vantage Data Centres, Nscale and Kyndryl — would commit to spending £14 billion on AI in the UK, leading to the creation of more than 13,000 jobs.

However, there are concerns that sector-wide implementation of AI could result in job losses as the technology replaces tasks carried out by humans.

The UK is seeking clarification on the application of copyright law to AI, which it says aims to protect the creative industry despite widespread concern among artists.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com