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New home construction is stalling as homebuilder sentiment sours over Trump’s tariffs, economists say

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  • Tariff and immigration policy anxiety is settling in for homebuilders, and it’s starting to reveal itself in the data. Building permits, housing starts, and housing completions all fell in February compared to a year ago. Despite some monthly rebounds from a particularly weak January, builders are losing confidence—and buyers might have to pay the price. 

Homebuilders are anxious about tariffs, and it’s starting to show in construction data. Building permits, housing starts, and housing completions all fell in February compared to a year ago, according to government data released Tuesday. Any drop-off in housing development is distressing because the country is short almost four million homes. 

“Builders are exercising caution due to the economic uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration’s advancement of a trade war and mass deportations,” Joel Berner, Realtor.com senior economist, said in a statement. “With tariffs being levied against construction imports like Canadian lumber and the construction labor force being shrunk by immigration policy, builders are pulling back on delivering new homes to the market.”

Economists warned before President Donald Trump was elected his tariff and immigration policies could be inflationary, and it appears as if builders are catching on; they’re essentially taking a page out of the Federal Reserve’s approach-with-caution book. The on-again, off-again tariffs are prompting uncertainty, but the threats of reciprocal tariffs as well as those on lumber, aluminum, and steel are enough to push builders to pull back. 

For a while, the new construction market was a bright spot in an otherwise dreary housing world where existing home sales fell to their lowest level in almost three decades. Builders could do what typical sellers couldn’t: They could offer mortgage rate buydowns and build smaller homes. But “growing concerns over tariffs are starting to have an impact on new starts and permitting activity,” Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said in a statement, echoing her peers as she pointed to tariffs and overall economic uncertainty weighing on builders.

According to U.S. Census Bureau data released Tuesday, total building permits dropped 1.2% from January and 6.8% from a year earlier; total housing starts rose 11.2% from January but fell 2.9% from a year earlier; and total housing completions declined 4% from January and 6.2% from a year ago. Total starts were the only area to rebound on a monthly basis. Even so, multifamily development bore the brunt of the blow, Berner explained, which could mean higher rents ahead because fewer apartments mean increased demand and that tends to come with higher prices. Single-family construction isn’t out of the woods despite some monthly increases in starts and completions after an especially weak January. 

Even the National Association of Homebuilders appeared to write off the month-to-month rebound in starts as a product of limited existing inventory because homeowners are holding onto their homes rather than selling for fear of losing their low mortgage rate. The group said builders are grappling with elevated construction costs stemming from tariff issues and persistent labor shortages.

“Builder confidence is weighed down by the double whammy of cost challenges and policy uncertainty,” Odeta Kushi, chief economist of First American Financial Corporation, said in a statement. “Builders face persistent supply-side and affordability challenges, from higher material costs to a shortage of skilled labor. Material costs are still about 40% higher than pre-pandemic levels, making construction more expensive.” 

Tariffs could make everything more costly. After all, builders estimate levies could mean an extra $9,000 to the price tag on every home.

“If tariffs persist, builders will have no choice but to pass on the costs to consumers, who are already struggling with housing affordability,” Kushi said. (Bank of America also recently found building material manufacturers’ are hiking prices on the back of Trump’s tariffs).

Since February 2020, home prices increased 45% and rents 33%, according to Zillow: a product of the pandemic housing boom. Mortgage rates are nowhere near their pandemic rock bottom either. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.95%, according to the latest weekly average. Many people can’t afford a tariff-related increase to either home prices or rents at this point. 

The underlying trend is homebuilding is slowing, Matthew Walsh, Moody’s housing economist, said in a statement.

“Homebuilder sentiment is souring amid mounting uncertainty around trade and immigration policy, is clouding the outlook for new construction,” he said.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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Finland is the world’s happiest country yet again. Here are the top 10 on the list

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It’s a good day to be a Finn—again

For the 8th successive year, Finland ranks no.1 on the annual World Happiness Report. The report, published on the UN’s International Day of Happiness, is based on analysis of how the residents of over 140 countries rate their quality of life. With 10 meaning someone is currently living the best possible life they can imagine, Finns came in first with an average score of 7.74. 

“They’re wealthy, they’re healthy, have social connections, social support, [and] a connection with nature,” Jan-Emmanuel De Neve, professor of economics at the University of Oxford, leader of the Wellbeing Research Center and editor of The World Happiness Report, tells Fortune. “They’re not happy, joyful, dancing in the streets type people, but they’re very content with their lives.”

Finland was followed by Denmark (no.2), Iceland (no.3), Sweden (no.4), and the Netherlands (no.5). While Mexico (no.10) and Costa Rica (no.6) joined the top 10 for the first time in the list’s history, the U.S. dropped to its lowest ranking at no. 24. Last year, the U.S. dropped out of the top 20 for the first time since the 2012 inaugural list. 

The Nordic countries, historically at the top, are getting happier while the U.S. is getting less happy. While GDP per capita is relatively similar across the Nordic countries, the U.S., Australia, and the UK, the distribution of wealth sets them apart. 

“In these Nordic Scandinavian countries, a rising tide lifts all boats, so the levels of economic inequality are much less, and that reflects in well-being as well,” De Neve says. “In Finland, most people will rate themselves as seven or an eight, whereas if you look at the distribution of well-being in the States, there’s a lot of 10s out there, but there’s a lot of ones as well.”

While the rankings factored in a country’s GDP per capita, wealth distribution, and life expectancy, they found social trust and connection help determine happiness more than people may think. 

This year, the researchers found a strong correlation between someone believing in the kindness of others and their own perceived happiness. Across the board, too often, people underestimate the kindness of others, like, say, if someone will return a lost wallet. It affects well-being. Wallets are returned to their owner at almost twice the rate people assume. However, compared to the U.S., more people in Nordic countries believe a lost wallet will be returned (and more people are likely to return it).  

Maintaining a strong sense of community with acts such as regularly dining with others, for example, improves social trust and happiness, the report found. “The more you believe in the kindness of others, or in other words, are socially trusting, the higher your individual well-being and the higher collective well-being,” De Neve says. “The Nordic countries, the Scandinavian countries, do better, both in the belief in others’ kindness and in the actual wallet drop.” 

As for Mexico and Costa Rica joining the top 10 for the first in the list’s history, De Neve points to the strength of the countries’ social fabrics. Latin American countries reported the highest number of shared meals and ranked high on social connectedness and trust. It helps explain why their rankings dipped more dramatically in the COVID-19 isolation years (De Neve says that 13 out of 14 meals shared across seven days correlated to the highest well-being measure).

“It is not because of high GDP and the highest life expectancy,” De Neve says about these two countries. “They do spend time dining and lunching with others, having friends, and it’s not all cannibalized by social media, and so we picked this up in the data.” 

The report is published yearly by the Wellbeing Research Centre at the University of Oxford, alongside partners, including Gallup, the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, and an editorial board that analyzes the findings pro bono.  

As De Neve dug into why Finland kept its reign, something else came to light that helped them stand out even from their Nordic counterparts. 

“They’re content with less,” he says. “They had less, and they’re more content with less. So they’re happier with what they’ve got.” 

Here are the world’s 25 happiest countries

  1. Finland
  2. Denmark
  3. Iceland
  4. Sweden
  5. Netherlands
  6. Costa Rica 
  7. Norway 
  8. Israel 
  9. Luxembourg
  10. Mexico 

For more on happiness:

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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Fed soothes ‘Trumpcession’ fears by keeping two interest rate cuts on the table

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  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeated the word “uncertainty” when talking about the central bank’s economic outlook, using it at least 10 times. The Fed slightly lowered its growth projection and raised its forecast for inflation, but investors appeared more convinced the Fed is particularly attuned to concerns about growth.  

Markets breathed a sigh of relief on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve kept rates steady as expected but signaled that two cuts remain on the table this year. Stocks jumped after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy remains strong, though he emphasized the central bank will adopt a wait-and-see approach when it comes to the economic agenda of President Donald Trump. 

The day offered some solace to stocks, which have tumbled amid Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff threats and growing fears of a recession, as the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed up 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively. Both indexes had recently entered correction territory after dropping more than 10% from all-time highs in mid-February, wiping out gains from the market rally after Trump’s election win in November. 

For the Fed, “uncertainty” was the word of the day, said Chris Diaz, a partner and co-head of the global taxable fixed income team at Baltimore, Maryland-based investment firm Brown Advisory, who noted Powell used the term at least 10 times. 

Just as they had in December, Fed policymakers penciled in a median of two interest rate reductions in the famous “dot plot,” which shows where individual officials see rates headed. Eight of the 19 participants had rates unchanged or only being cut once, however, up from only four who maintained that hawkish posture at the end of last year. Nonetheless, Diaz said, investors appeared more convinced the Fed is particularly attuned to concerns about growth. 

“That, for a riskier asset class [like] stocks, I think, is a much more welcome message than, ‘We’re not going to do anything, or maybe we’ll raise rates because we don’t know what’s going to happen to inflation,’” Diaz said. 

Hedge fund and ETF manager Jay Hatfield, the CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said the market also reacted to the Fed’s announcement that it would slow the pace of so-called quantitative tightening, or the process of offloading assets from the central bank’s balance sheet. Many investors interpret that (wrongly, he argued) as a dovish signal, he said. In his press conference, Powell said the move was simply a response to increased tightness in money markets. 

“This action has no implications for our intended stance of monetary policy and should not affect the size of our balance sheet over the medium term,” he said. 

Fed expects slightly lower growth, higher inflation 

Treasury bonds also rallied slightly despite the Fed confirming it would not lower the federal funds rate, which banks charge when lending to their peers overnight. The market is pricing in two to three cuts in 2025, according to the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool. If they do come to pass, however, investors will hope they are “good news” cuts enabled by easing inflation concerns and not an emergency response to a so-called “Trumpcession.”

Many investors believed the new administration would prioritize presumably pro-growth (and potentially inflationary) aspects of Trump’s agenda like tax cuts and deregulation. Instead, the new administration appears fixated on overhauling America’s trade relations, and the jury is out whether tariffs will ultimately reignite inflation or slow growth. Then there’s the worst-case scenario of “stagflation.” 

Powell, meanwhile, suggested the broad economic impact of the mass government layoffs initiated by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency also remains unclear. 

“As growth prospects falter and inflation remains sticky, we should expect investors to get more worried about stagflation,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for broker-dealer LPL Financial, wrote in a note after the Fed’s announcement. 

Goldman Sachs recently downgraded its GDP growth projection to 1.7%, the first time the investment bank’s forecast has fallen below Wall Street’s consensus in 2 ½ years, while raising expectations for inflation. 

Fed officials, meanwhile, also trimmed their growth projection to 1.7%, down from 2.1% in December, and raised the forecast of its preferred inflation metric from 2.5% to 2.7%—above the central bank’s 2% target. 

Of course, not all market participants are celebrating the Fed’s decision. Hatfield believes the Fed has kept monetary policy overly tight amid what he sees as clear signs of economic weakness. He compared the Fed’s current hesitancy to cut rates to the central bank’s slow response when inflation hit four-decade highs in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has been heavily criticized

But David Andolfatto, a former senior VP at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said the Fed faces an impossible task trying to please markets. Lambasting the Fed for being cautious amid tremendous uncertainty, he said, is like calling out a driver who chooses to take it slow on the roads during a fierce storm. 

“You can’t see the potholes,” Andolfatto, who now chairs the University of Miami’s economics department, said Tuesday. “You got to slow down. You might turn right, you might turn left, you might make a mistake. But, I mean, you’re trying to do the best that you can given the lack of clarity in the storm.”

Investors are hoping the clouds will clear up soon. 

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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Jamie Dimon on tariffs, geopolitics—and the misery facing the bottom 20% of U.S. earners

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Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank, says the economy is still in the soft landing phase, “but there’s a lot of turbulence out there.”

“Tariffs, they’ll definitely have pluses and minuses, you see consternation around the world,” Dimon said on Wednesday in a conversation with Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen at the tech company’s annual summit in Las Vegas. There’s also uncertainty about what going to happen with President Trump’s proposed tax plan, he said.

Dimon also expressed concern about geopolitics and the effects of the turbulence on the economy. “I personally think the most important thing happening in the world is what’s happening with Ukraine and Russia, and the Middle East. I know that’s about the future of a free democratic world.”

Regarding spending in the U.S., “consumers at the low end are basically spending down,” he said, explaining that that means saving money by taking actions like canceling a trip or going to a less expensive restaurant. “People at the high end, their money is down a lot, but they are a lot wealthier; think of homes and stock prices over the last 20 years,” he explained.

But Dimon also wanted to make an important point for all of the leaders in the audience: “The bottom 20% [of earners in the U.S.] didn’t get a pay raise for 25 years; they’re dying younger. Their schools aren’t good and they live in crime-ridden neighborhoods.”

Also speaking on the economy, Dimon said, “Hopefully inflation will come down.” He noted that the green economy and restructuring trade—“however it happens”—is going to cost money and “cause a little bit of inflation.”

He added, “There are a lot of inflationary forces.” But instead of just looking at the latest inflation report, he advised looking at the long-term trends, like IRAs and a lot of demand for capital. Dimon also thinks there’s going to be more military spending: “When I look at the world, I always try to look at the future facts.”

“I always hope for the best,” Dimon said to the audience—but he also gave this advice: “As a businessperson, plan for all potential outcomes.”

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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