Tech News
Wall Street sell-off is actually being caused by warped expectations vs reality, says JPMorgan strategy boss

- Wall Street initially expected a pro-business environment under President Trump, but instead faced market volatility due to tariffs, austerity measures, and economic uncertainty. While some investors see opportunities in the downturn, analysts are realizing that expectations for Trump’s policies have not aligned with reality, leading to market corrections and a reassessment of future growth.
When Donald Trump won the election JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said bankers would be dancing in the street. Why? There was a business-friendly, pro-growth, regulation-lite, tax-opponent president soon to be in the White House.
Or so they thought.
In reality, they’ve got an Oval Office ramping up tariff policy—which many are beginning to frame as a tax—working hand-in-hand with cost-cutting austerity measures in the form of the Department of Government Efficiency.
Moreover, they’ve got a White House that appears unbothered by market disruption and relatively agnostic about whether or not its policies will prove recessionary or inflationary.
This chasm between expectation and reality is at the root of Wall Street’s woes, JPMorgan Private Bank’s U.S. head of investment strategy, Jake Manoukian, tells Fortune in an exclusive interview.
It’s also taken analysts a couple of attempts to learn this lesson: Already, Deutsche Bank chided investors for not taking Trump’s tariff threat seriously and instead pricing in a more minor blip.
But after last week’s near-market correction and with the S&P500 down a total of 8% this month, analysts are beginning to question how long the volatility will prevail.
“So far the first … 50 days of Trump is almost the opposite of what the expectations were in November, December, January,” Manoukian said. “That came at a time when the S&P500 was trading at 22 times forward P/E multiple, baking in a lot of enthusiasm around an acceleration in corporate earnings and a re-engagement of capital market activity.
“It’s the confluence of the disconnect between the expectations and reality that needs to be realigned, and that’s manifesting itself through a selloff in the S&P500 that’s been concentrated in some of the most popular, highly valued names.”
While some investors may be watching the headlines and wringing their hands, those bullish on the U.S. are seeing the downturn as an opportunity. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, for example, said he views current market conditions as a chance to snap up stocks at a reduced rate.
While this snap back won’t happen “rapidly” Manoukian warned, there are green shoots already appearing that could boost confidence: A potential resolution to the universal tariffs question in early April, a Jobs Act extension progress making its way through Congress, a policy for expensing structures investments, and work being done to reduce the 10-year yields rate.
“There’s clearly a path where the market could snap back relatively quickly,” Manoukian added. “Our outlook is still for the U.S. equity market to end the year higher than where it is today, by the low-teens percentages, which leads to a full year return in the high single-digits. When we’re in selloffs like this, you usually see the bottom well before the news is … turning. You know the famous quote from Dr. David Kelly, our good friend, is markets don’t settle down, they settle up.”
Outlook depends on who you ask
Manoukian said the responses of clients to market conditions have varied depending on political affiliation—though stuck to JP’s well-reported house view that politics should not influence portfolios.
“We don’t think you should let politics mix with your investments because if you either love or hate the policies that are being proposed, they could change in two years with the midterms and in four years with the next presidential election, and usually we’re investing for a longer period of time than that,” the economist explained. “We really try to get people to overcome their political bias. A perfect little example of this is if you look at the University of Michigan inflation expectation survey, Republicans expect 0% inflation over the next year, and Democrats expect like 4.5 or 5% inflation.
“There’s a huge disparity between what people think based on their political persuasion, which is something that we always try to overcome.”
Overall consumer sentiments are dipping, the University of Michigan added in a report released at the weekend.
The index found that confidence is falling across the political spectrum. Since last month, Republicans’ ratings have been down three points to 83.9, Democrats’ ratings have dropped 10 points to 41.4, and Independents’ ratings have dropped five points to 57.2.
Lessons to learn
The notion that analysts may have been caught off-guard by Trump’s policies presents a lesson, though “not a new one,” adds Manoukian.
“2023 and 2024 were tremendous years for equity markets because the bar was low, and the economy and equity markets and corporate earnings continued to deliver to exceed expectations,” he explained. “At the beginning of 2023 everyone thought we were going to go into a recession—we didn’t.
“At the beginning of 2024, everyone thought the Fed wouldn’t be able to lower interest rates. They ended up cutting interest rates by 100 basis points. In both of those years, the equity market went up by 25%.”
He said that coming into 2025 the bar was “much higher,” explaining: “To continue to beat that hurdle, things needed to keep getting better and better and better. Instead, what you’ve seen is corporate earnings are still fine, but we already expected corporate earnings to be great, and we’re not getting anything additional from the policy backdrop that we thought we were gonna get.”
One of the clearest examples of the void between Trump 2.0 expectations and reality could be Tesla: With Elon Musk so closely linked to the White House, his EV-maker saw its stock soar to record highs as backers expected friendly terms.
Instead, the gains it made post-election have been lost.
“A lot of froth built up in the marketplace based on this enthusiasm around Trump 2.0 that hasn’t materialized yet, and what’s happened so far is that that froth has been wiped away,” Manoukian added.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
Tech News
Botin says Santander’s focus is on Americas, less so Europe

Banco Santander SA will keep prioritizing the US and Latin America, despite government pledges to invest hundreds of billions of euros across Europe that could spur economic growth, Chairman Ana Botin said.
“We continue to have a big business in Europe, we see a lot of potential over the next few years in Europe,” Botin said in a Bloomberg TV interview. “But our focus will continue to be more on the Americas.”
Spain’s largest bank has been hiring in the US and rolling out a new digital bank in the country as well as in Mexico as it seeks to expand across the region. The performance of operations in some other countries has been less strong, with the UK emerging as one laggard, Bloomberg News has reported.
Still, governments across the European Union are now stepping up public spending, especially on defense. That’s “good for growth” in the region, Botin said in the interview.
The recent US launch of Santander’s digital bank, called Openbank, “has exceeded our expectation,” Botin said. The offering now has close to 100,000 customers, she said, adding that the Spanish lender plans to move US retail clients from their current platform to the Openbank one.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
Tech News
EVs may help the environment but because their owners don’t buy gas they’re starving states of tax money to fix potholes and build roads

The pothole outside Timothy Taylor’s home was so deep, he could hear the clunk of cars hitting it from inside his house.
The Portland, Oregon, resident could sympathize with those drivers: He knew to avoid his own neighborhood pothole, but another one damaged his car’s suspension to the tune of $1,000.
“Hearing that awful sound of your car bottoming out — it’s horrible,” he said.
Oregon transportation officials say that without more funding, residents like Taylor could see further declines in the quality of roads, highways and bridges starting this year. But revenues from gas taxes paid by drivers at the pump are projected to decrease as more people adopt electric and fuel-efficient cars, forcing officials to look for new ways to fund transportation infrastructure.
States with aggressive climate goals like Oregon are facing a conundrum: EVs can help reduce emissions in the transportation sector, the nation’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, but they also mean less gas tax revenue in government coffers.
“We now find ourselves right now in a position where we want to address fuel use and drive down reliance on gases and internal combustion engines. But we need the funds to operate our roads that EVs need to use as well,” said Carra Sahler, director of the Green Energy Institute at Lewis & Clark Law School.
Gas tax revenue is set to fall
Motor fuel taxes are the largest source of transportation revenue for states, according to the National Association of Budget Officers’ most recent report on state expenditures. But the money they bring in has fallen: Gas taxes raised 41% of transportation revenue in fiscal year 2016, compared with roughly 36% in fiscal year 2024, the group found.
In California, where zero-emission vehicles accounted for about a quarter of all car sales last year, legislative analysts predict gas tax collections will decrease by $5 billion — or 64% — by 2035, in a scenario where the state successfully meets its climate goals. California and Oregon are among the multiple states that will require all new passenger cars sold to be zero-emission vehicles by 2035.
The downward revenue trend is already playing out in Pennsylvania, where gas tax revenues dropped an estimated $250 million last year compared with 2019, according to the state’s independent fiscal office.
Inflation has also driven up the cost of transportation materials, further exacerbating budget concerns.
What is going on in Oregon?
The Oregon Department of Transportation — citing inflation, projections of declining gas tax revenues and certain spending limitations — has estimated a budget shortfall topping $350 million for the next budget cycle.
That could mean cuts to winter snow plowing and the striping and paving of roads, as well as layoffs of as many as 1,000 transportation employees.
Republican lawmakers say the gas tax revenue issue has been compounded by the department mismanaging its money. An audit released in January found the department overestimated its revenue for the current budget cycle by over $1 billion and failed to properly track certain funds.
“It really is about making sure that the existing dollars that are being spent by the department are being spent efficiently and effectively,” said state Sen. Bruce Starr, GOP co-vice chair of the joint transportation committee.
How states are boosting transportation funding
To make up for lost revenue, 34 states have raised their gas tax since 2013, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. California has the highest gas tax at over 69 cents a gallon when including other taxes and fees, while Alaska has the lowest at 9 cents a gallon, according to figures from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In Oregon — which in 1919 became the first state to implement a gas tax — it is 40 cents a gallon.
The federal gas tax of 18 cents a gallon, which isn’t adjusted for inflation, hasn’t been raised in over three decades.
In Oregon, where there is no sales tax and tolling has met fierce opposition, lawmakers are debating next steps.
Other states have taken steps ranging from indexing their gas tax to inflation, to raising registration fees for EVs, to taxing EV charging stations.
To bolster transportation dollars, some have reorganized their budgets: In Michigan, where Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was first elected using the slogan “Fix the Damn Roads,” some revenues from marijuana taxes and personal income taxes now go toward transportation. In Connecticut, the sales tax now brings in more money for its special transportation fund than gas tax revenues, a 2024 fiscal report shows.
Another concept that could provide a long-term solution is a so-called road user charge. Under such a system, drivers pay a fee based on the distance they travel.
In 2023, Hawaii established a road usage charge program for EV drivers that will phase in starting this July. In 2028, all EV drivers will be automatically enrolled, with odometers read at annual vehicle inspections.
Three other states — Oregon, Utah and Virginia — have voluntary road usage fee programs. Drivers can opt to use GPS tools to track and report their mileage.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
Tech News
A victim of potential housing department cuts: domestic violence survivors who need homes

- One provider of permanent housing is concerned that a crucial funding program for domestic violence survivors might be next on the federal cost-cutting hit list. The Department of Housing and Urban Development, under Trump-appointed Secretary Scott Turner, has launched its own task force to assess spending.
The Department of Housing and Urban Development announced a cost-cutting task force a month ago and said it found more than $260 million in savings, while Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency claimed it recovered $1.9 billion of “HUD money” that had been misplaced during the prior administration.
Warnings about more cuts for HUD have been circulating, whether it be its budget or staff; the Washington Post reported the department’s workforce is expected to be slashed in half, according to an internal memo it obtained. So it’s a waiting game for one nonprofit that provides permanent housing for domestic violence survivors and depends on HUD money.
“If we lose this funding, it will get people killed,” New Destiny Chief Executive Nicole Branca told Fortune.
Domestic violence survivors and their children often need housing assistance to escape their abusers, especially in places such as New York City, where her nonprofit is located, and where rent is 62% higher than the national average.
The Department of Housing and Urban Development and DOGE did not respond to Fortune’s request for comment.
New Destiny finds apartments for survivors throughout the city and pays those landlords via funding that comes from HUD’s Continuum of Care program. The nonprofit receives about $3.5 million in HUD Continuum of Care grants for that, a third of its budget. This year, New Destiny has helped about 300 households through this funding, all survivors of domestic violence, who are mostly women. Some years it’s as much as 400 survivors and their families.
HUD Secretary Scott Turner recently said that funds from Continuum of Care were not being used as intended—to end homelessness—but “as a tool by the left to push a woke agenda,” which makes Branca nervous about what will happen to the program.
“We’re very concerned because if we lost funding we would have to immediately stop paying rent,” she said. “In a city where rent is as high as it is and the vacancy rate for new apartments is as low as it is, we absolutely without any exaggeration would see a huge percentage of our families go almost immediately either back into shelter or back to their abuser.”
If HUD’s headcount is slashed, there won’t be anyone to reimburse New Destiny, and it would slow everything down because they don’t have enough cash on hand, Branca said. NPR reported HUD’s Office of Community Planning and Development, which administers the Continuum of Care funding, is expected to lose 84% of its staff, according to a document it reviewed.
Once you lose trust with landlords because you miss a rent payment, they won’t rent to you again, Branca said—and it is already difficult to get landlords to accept tenants on rental assistance, though they’re required to by law. Even a suspicion that the money might be going away could push landlords to pull back. Not to mention, it’s more expensive to house survivors in shelters, where many would be without permanent housing.
It costs about $11,000 a year to put a survivor in permanent housing versus $100,000 a year in shelters, according to New Destiny. That’s because of New York City’s right to shelter, which allows anyone who shows up asking for a place to sleep to get a bed somewhere, even if it’s an expensive hotel in midtown, New Destiny explained. But the shelter system comes with more bureaucracy, too, so that requires staff, contracts, and other things that add up. Even so, being in a shelter means they’re still homeless.
Still, it goes beyond New Destiny. The Continuum of Care program provides $3 billion for homelessness across the country; New York City receives $175 million in that amount for 165 homeless initiatives that help 11,000 households, according to Branca. And it isn’t only for survivors of domestic violence. It’s to house those subjected to stalking and sexual assault, each disproportionately affects women.
This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
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